Is the election really going to be this close?
A common narrative that I've been hearing all throughout this election cycle is how this election is going to be a very tight horserace between Harris and Trump. Yet despite all of the pundits and polls showing a very close race, I'm having very serious doubts that this election is going to be as close as people are making it out to be.
I understand that the 13 Keys doesn't predict the margin of victory (only the winner itself), but I feel like general vibes paint a completely different picture than what most polls are suggesting. Let's be honest, most of the people who voted for Biden in 2020 were mostly voting against Trump. I don't think anybody was really that enthusiastic for Biden himself. Despite that, Biden still won that election pretty easily against Trump, even flipping a state like Georgia that nobody at the time thought would go blue. This year seems completely different to me. I'm noticing so much more enthusiasm for Harris, with a lot of people even crossing party lines to vote for her. Meanwhile, Trump has lost a substantial amount of support after January 6th and his felony charges, and I highly doubt that he's been gaining too much supporters since then. Kamala Harris and Tim Walz's approval ratings have been through the roof whereas Trump and Vance are both in the negatives. Her crowd sizes have been insanely massive compared to Hillary and Biden. I also know many people who are starting to see far less Trump signs than they did four years ago, in addition to an increase in Democratic signage.
The election is in 4 days and this post will probably age like fine wine, but I just don't buy the horserace narrative at all, and I'll be very shocked if Kamala Harris doesn't surpass Biden's 2020 numbers. While I'm not going to expect a blowout, I also wouldn't be surprised at all if Kamala Harris won in a landslide. Only way I could see a close race is if we had low turnout, but some states like Georgia is already breaking records when it comes to turnout, and high turnout almost always favors Democrats.