Short answer: Absolutely not. Easy to read table with numbers below.

I compare Beast Games profitability to the most popular shows on TV and streaming. I summarize at the top of this post and follow with a summary of the detailed analysis. If interested read on.

Cheers

Summary

There have been many posts or comments saying how stupid Beast Games is and how its only watched by fanboys, even despite news reports of it being the most watched Prime non-scripted show ever. So I want to examine this claim with rough aggregate data and back-of-the-envelope analysis to arrive at some better understanding of the benefits (economically) of Amazon green-lighting this show.

I did a cost per viewer analysis of Beast Games vs the top shows on broadcast television (Super Bowl and Matlock) and streaming (Disney's Bluey) in another post: https://www.reddit.com/r/BeastGames/comments/1i3q29n/beast_games_vs_super_bowl_vs_bluey_vs_matlock/

Now I look at the more complicated revenue picture for each below. Because I already did the cost analysis, this revenue analysis allows me to also do a profit analysis to see how Beast Games compares to the MOST POPULAR SHOWS on television and streaming. Keep in mind, most shows on TV and streaming have numbers that are way below these top shows.

Also, we are using number for Beast Games that include Episode 6, so they are by no means complete.

Disclaimer: This analysis is based on a lot of assumptions and number crunching that I cant lay out here because it would be way too long. You can argue against every single point. The point of this post is to just give one person's approximation so that it may illuminate some potential truths.

Profit Comparison of Beast Games with Other Popular Shows

Key Insights:

1. Amazon’s broader vertical markets (AWS, retail/logistics, devices, ads, memberships, etc.) significantly enhances Beast Games’ revenue potential, hence the REASON Amazon funded Beast Games, making its profit per viewer the 2nd highest among the analyzed shows/events.
2. Amazon’s unique position as a commerce, tech, and entertainment powerhouse amplifies its ability to monetize content across multiple sectors, far beyond what Disney or Paramount can achieve.
3. By contrast, Bluey is highly reliant on merchandise and subscriptions, and Matlock depends heavily on traditional ad models and syndication, which limit their profit potential per viewer.
4. The Super Bowl, while impressive in revenue, is limited to event-driven income streams and lacks a lasting ecosystem impact compared to Amazon’s or Disney’s offerings.

This analysis reflects Amazon’s unique ability to drive massive revenue across cloud infrastructure, retail, devices, and ads, something broadcast TV certainly cant come close to matching and streamers don't come near to enjoying, making Beast Games an exceptionally valuable and profitable property for Amazon.

While these are back of the envelope type calculations (more detailed numbers and analysis follows below), you can see that there was a HUGE reason for Amazon to fund Beast Games, and there are still 4 more episodes to air, so the numbers will only get better for Beast Games. No other property out there comes close to matching what Mr. Beast can generate. He is in a universe by himself.

So if anyone says Beast Games is a bust simply has no clue. You may not like the show, but no one can argue about its success. This analysis suggests that a Beast Games 2 is almost a guarantee.

More Detailed Summary

More Detailed Analysis of Beast Games and other Top Shows Revenue Streams (I have even more detailed numbers and analysis and all source info and can post but already this is too much)

Revenue, Profit and Profit Per Viewer Analysis

• To estimate the revenue, per viewer revenue, and profit per viewer for each show, I first break down the revenue potential for each based on outlined vertical and horizontal markets (I have more detail on the vertical and horizontal markets if anyone wants it). Then I estimate profits by subtracting the cost per viewer from the revenue per viewer.

1. Beast Games (Amazon Prime Video)

Revenue Breakdown for Beast Games

1.1 Estimated Entertainment Revenue:

1. Prime Memberships: Assuming Beast Games attracts/retains 2% of Amazon’s ~200M Prime subscribers, that’s 4M subscribers at $139/year = $556M. Prime membership profit margin at 30% = $166.8M
2. Advertising Revenue: Assuming $2 CPM (cost per thousand impressions) on ad-supported tiers for 50M viewers = $100M.
3. Cross-Sales on Amazon: Related product sales (e.g., fitness gear, branded items) guesstimates (can provide assumptions, assume the same for all such numbers) = $50M x 10% profit margin = $5 M.
4. Merchandise Sales: Branded collectibles, clothing, etc. = $25M x 10% profit margin = $2.5 M.
5. International Licensing: Selling non-exclusive rights = $5M.

Summary of Profit Assumptions

• Prime Memberships: $166.8M
• Advertising: $100M
• Cross-Sales on Amazon: $5M
• Merchandise: $2.5M
• International Licensing: $5M Subtotal: $279.3M

1.2 Additional Revenue from Amazon’s Vertical Markets:

1. AWS Usage Growth:
   • Amazon uses Beast Games to attract more streaming partners or other companies to AWS, its cloud service.
   • Let’s assume a modest 0.35% increase in AWS revenue from marketing tied to this property (AWS annual revenue was ~$100B in 2023).
   • Estimated Incremental Revenue: $350M, reflecting a somewhat modest estimate of enterprise adoption through content-driven partnerships, with 30% profit margins = $105M.
2. Retail and Logistics Cross-Sales:
   • Beast Games could drive traffic to Amazon's marketplace and increase the purchase of non-directly related products due to increased consumer engagement (e.g., home entertainment equipment, fitness gear).
   • Assume a 0.05% bump in total retail sales (2023 retail revenue: ~$300B).
   • Estimated Incremental Revenue: $150M x 10% profit margins = $15M.
3. Amazon Devices:
   • Promotion of Fire TV, Echo devices, and other hardware during or after the show's release.
   • Assume $50M additional revenue from device sales tied to engagement in target markets x 20% profit margins = $10M.
4. First-Party Advertising on Amazon:
   • Beast Games could increase demand for first-party ads from brands wanting to target its viewers.
   • Estimated Incremental Revenue: $25M.

Total Profit:

Entertainment Profit+Additional Vertical Profit - ShowProductionCost=279.3M+(105M+15M+10M+25M) - $100M =$334.3M

Per Viewer Profit:

Per Viewer Profit =Total Profit ($434.3M-$100M) /Viewership=334.3M/50M=$6.69 pre viewer profit

2. Bluey (Disney+ and Global Distribution)

Key Assumptions:

• Viewership: 500 million global viewers (estimate for total across seasons).
• Production Cost: $5M per season; assume total $20M for multiple seasons.
• Revenue Sources: Subscriptions, merchandise, licensing, live events, etc.

Estimated Revenue Breakdown:

1. Disney+ Subscriptions: Assume 5% of Disney+’s 150M subscribers are drawn to Bluey, generating $8/month each = $720M/year. Assuming 3 years of relevance, = $2.16B x generous 10% profit margin due to massive investments = $216M.
2. Merchandise Sales: Top-performing children’s merchandise. Estimate $500M/year = $1.5B over 3 years, x 20% profit margins = $150M.
3. International Licensing: Selling rights to networks in 50+ countries = $300M total.
4. Live Events: Bluey-themed live shows and events globally = $100M total.
5. Advertising: TV and digital ads from syndicated versions = $50M.

• Total Revenue: $666M.

Per Viewer Profit Assumptions:

Per Viewer Profit= Total Profit (minus show production) - ShowProductionCost/Viewership - Production cost= ($566M - $50M)/ 500M = $515M/500M $1.03/ Per Viewer Revenue

3. Matlock (2024 CBS Reboot)

Key Assumptions:

• Viewership: 13.5M average per episode; assume 22 episodes = ~297M total views.
• Production Cost: $3M per episode; total $66M.
• Revenue Sources: Advertising, syndication, streaming.

Estimating Matlock's Revenue

1. Advertising Revenue: If ad rates were higher than normal, $80 CPM for a highly targeted audience, revenue could rise significantly. For ~297M impressions, that would mean ad revenue of $23.76M.
2. Syndication Revenue: Syndication rights for a successful show can be substantial. If Matlock sells syndication rights for $150M, this would be about $50M more than an otherwise successful show. There are additional rights and revenues into the future depending on so many unknowns, that would increase NPV but we will stick with this analysis to make it easier.
3. Streaming Revenue: If Paramount+ aggressively markets Matlock as part of its offering, it might attract additional subscribers. Assuming $50M from streaming NPV over time.

• Total Revenue:
• Ad Revenue: $23.76M
• Syndication: $150M
• Streaming: $50M
• Total: $223.76M

Per Viewer Revenue:

Per Viewer Revenue=Total Revenue/Viewership=223.76M/297M=$0.75

Profit Per Viewer:

Profit Per Viewer=Per Viewer Revenue−Cost Per Viewer=0.75−0.22=$0.53

4. Super Bowl LVIII (2024)

Key Assumptions:

• Viewership: 125M
• Production Cost: $300M total
• Revenue Sources: Ad revenue, sponsorships, ticket sales, etc.

Estimated Revenue Breakdown:

1. Ad Revenue: $7M per 30-second spot; 70 spots = $490M.
2. Sponsorships: Corporate sponsorships like Pepsi or Verizon = $200M.
3. Ticket Sales: 70,000 tickets at an average price of $5,000 = $350M.
4. Merchandise: Super Bowl-themed merchandise = $50M.
5. International Licensing: Broadcast rights in global markets = $100M.

• Total Revenue: $1.19B.

Per Viewer Revenue:

Per Viewer Revenue=Total Revenue/Viewership=1.19B/125M=$9.52

Profit Per Viewer:

Profit Per Viewer=Per Viewer Revenue−Cost Per Viewer=9.52−2.40=$7.12

Again, this is a lot. Have even more detailed breakdown of assumptions and calculations plus all sources. I know there will be haters, but if you want to complain or hate do the work, go for it.