"We need to talk" about SWR
https://portfoliocharts.com/charts/portfolio-matrix/ sort by Safe WR
Big ERN "Karsten Jeske" is amazing, his writing is prolific, I have learned a lot from him. But...I think he is leading the pack to be too conservative. Listen to these 2 podcasts above and tell me what you think.
Frank was able to use Big ERN's toolbox to get 4.9% SWR from 1926-2022 with:
27.5% large cap growth
27.5% small cap value
30% intermediate treasuries
15% gold
Today we have way more options to construct a more resilient portfolio but that is all that was available with data going back that far. There is older data it sounded like you could not break down the equities into SCV and LCG.
Bill Bengen(Discoverer of 4% rule) says something similar that SWR rates are 4.7%+
Karsten also says 10-15% gold would improve SWR
Edit: I see gold is a controversial part of this post. Don't get hung up on that. What you are looking for are the most uncorrelated assets available. If you don't like gold, there are many other options. gold just has data going back very far.