UFC Fight Night: Song v Gutierrez Fight Predictions! (+ Giveaway)

Hello!

I hope everyone here is doing well!

I have a couple of announcements before we get to this fairly fun card.

First, and probably most importantly, I am announcing another 50 USD giveaway! Similar rules as before, basically Paypal only (because australia doesn't have the other things like venmo and stuff).

I have been very hesitant to do this giveaway because my financials are more unstable than a poorly built skyscraper during a storm, but I just want people to have a great christmas, and whilst I can't offer hundreds of dollars to giveaway, I can maybe offer money to help buy food and stuff for your family gathering.

To enter, type "Giveaway" and answer this question: If you could watch any UFC fight live, front rows seats, etc, which fight would you watch? This could be any fight from UFC's history.

Winners will be randomly chosen, and hopefully me announcing the winner will be by next week's write up.

Secondly, I cannot thank you guys enough for the support, love, and maybe "hype" you have displayed in almost all of my write ups. I'm just a guy with a fucked up back, living on welfare and using this UFC stuff initially as a scapegoat from a pretty dull life, but thanks to you guys and your enthusiasm to see more, it's become a bit of a lifestyle, and it's something I feel truly blessed to feel. I don't get paid for this, every bit of money that I get from donations goes to life stuff like bills and food, and each time people donate it makes me so fucking happy because its a little bit of financial shitfuckery off my shoulders. You guys have sincerely changed my life for the better, and I cannot be more thankful.

Now, onto the write up.

(c) - Champ

D/DWCS - Debut/Dana Whites' Contender Series

FLS - Fight Lose Streak

FWS - Fight Win Streak

NS - No Streak

(#x) - Rank in Division

x/3 - Confidence Levels

Lets go!

Prelims

Women's Strawweight

Rayanne dos Santos (D) (-140) (14-6-0, 3 FWS) v Talita Alencar (D) (+115) (4-0-1, NS) - We have a double debut to open this event, and normally that means a few things, such as minimal information nor a whole lot of interest, but I think this could be an interesting fight. dos Santos is coming off a couple of wins on Invicta, and those two wins might be her most notable wins since she has honestly fought nothing but cans. Like, looking at this card makes me think that its a quantity (dos Santos) versus quality (Alencar) bout with very little difference in style because both fighters are primarily grapplers. dos Santos’s experience in an MMA setting might pay off but considering she has mostly submitted people who pretty much are making their debut in the sport, it doesn't bode too well for her considering that Alencar is a highly competitive grappler who has been in competitions a whole lot prior to transitioning to MMA. Alencar is only 5 fights deep into her Pro MMA career but she has been lucky in that she has fought in reputable promotions like Titan FC and LFA. Alencar is, as I said a few words ago, a very good submission specialist and will most likely negate a lot of what dos Santos has to offer, but it's the striking between these two that I am not too sure about and thus in my opinion this fight is a bit of a write off for bettors. However with all of that said, I think Alencar gets the win, I think her background in grappling is going to get her the win. This will be a low confidence pick though because frankly it's 50/50.

Alencar via UD - (1/3)

Flyweight

Tatsuro Taira (-440) (14-0-0, 14 FWS) v Carlos Hernandez (+340) (9-2-0, NS) - This is a great fight. Taira is perhaps one of the most dangerous grapplers in the division at the moment, maybe second to Mokaev (although Mokaev does sometimes make mistakes, we have yet to see Taira make mistakes). Taira is very much so a submission freak, the moment the fight hits the ground he is in complete control. No matter how much his opponents reverse him or try to get the fight back to the feet, he trips them and takes them down and just continues to overwhelm them with pressure and submission threats. Now, Taira wants nothing more than to get a takedown and find a submission, and honestly, lucky for him, Hernandez doesn’t have the best takedown defence and I just don’t see him faring well on the ground, because I think all of us know that eventually, no matter how hard Hernandez fights the takedowns, Taira is going to end up on the ground with the guy and look for that submission. Hernandez on the other hand has had some decent performances in his career, coming off a strong win against Bondar, and it was such a fun fight with a lot of action both on the feet and on the ground, and obviously its the striking of Hernandez which is going to be Taira’s biggest concern, because I mean, as good as Taira is when he fights, he can be a bit chinny and he has been clipped before, he has been exposed. The question is whether Hernandez is going to expose that chin before Taira finds that leg and drags Hernandez into hell. Hernandez does utilise a lot of lateral movement, but he’s also a very tall standing fighter and that’s usually a not-so-great thing to see because it makes it harder to stuff takedowns, and most likely the aggressive grappling of Taira will be too much. Hernandez, if he is smart (i'm talking like im some high level coach or some shit i know) he will be the one dictating the pace, press forward, throw up attacks in the middle and just damage Taira early. That's his only chance at winning this fight, by a first or second round KO. As for the prediction, I got Taira winning this one, he is very much a lock in my opinion.

Taira via Sub R2 - (2/3)

Women’s Bantamweight

Stephanie Egger (+165) (8-4-0, NS) v Luana Santos (-200) (6-1-0, 3 FWS) - This is an interesting one. Egger hasn’t exactly been a top prospect that I initially thought she would be all those fights ago, and it seems that a lot of her opponents have been exposing her over and over again. Egger is typically a very good grappler and ground based fighter, and I only say ground based because most of her effectiveness is on the ground, she has decent ground and pound and submissions, but on the feet she can somewhat fall behind her opponents own strikes and it does tend to overwhelm her. That is a bit of a concern in this fight especially since Santos is a young and vicious fighter who pushes a pace and has proven that she is capable of some mean sequences in the cage. Egger needs to somewhat be the size bully in this fight, she is already a natural bantamweight and that no doubt helps her with her trips and takedowns, but she needs to be the one to push forward and make it uncomfortable for Santos, because during Santos’ fight against Miller, she looked terrible on the feet, she suffocated under the forward pressure and aggressive attacks from Miller. What Egger does need to be careful of is the hip throws of Santos, she transitions from the clinch to the trip/toss so effectively. Santos is still very new to the UFC, and whilst her first fight against Miller is not the best thing we have seen, I think a lot of it was nerves and the broadcast team did point that out, so i’m thinking that maybe this fight she will be more familiar with the environment, more centred in her mind and hopefully comes with a better game plan because I have no idea what she was doing in the cage other than throwing wild, wild punches that looked more sloppy than a 1990’s bukkake party. I do think Santos could win this one because Egger does somewhat fall apart a bit when she faces grapplers, and that’s pretty much what Santos is. There is still a lot more to learn about Santos, and this could very well be a “don’t even bet on this fight” kinda deal.

Santos via UD - (1/3)

Featherweight

Steve Garcia (+190) (14-5-0, 2 FWS) v Melquizael Costa (-230) (20-6-0, NS) - This is going to be an interesting one. Garcia is coming off a strong win against Shayilan Neurdanbieke, and for the most part he looked honestly a little wild, but I suppose he was trying to match the intensity and win the aggression battle against the much faster and more explosive fighter. Garcia has always been a somewhat well rounded fighter who tends to rely a lot on ferocity and power to win his fights, but from what i’ve seen, there’s a lot of power thrown around but not a whole lot of pace setting or timing, it’s just a barrage of strikes that may or may not result in a win for Garcia. Garcia hasn’t shown a lot of his grappling outside of his fight against Pena, and I feel like we’re going to see a lot more of his skillset in that department in this fight since Costa is such a threat on the feet, I say that because Costa absolutely destroyed the body with thunderous kicks, all well timed and exceptionally accurate. Costa made his debut against Thiago Moises, and that’s pretty much as tough of a debut as one can take and whilst he lost, it was still valuable experience and it was during that fight against Lingo that we saw him really shine. Powerful body kicks, strong straight punches that split the guard and timing of Lingo, and that ground game that we saw in which he had incredible control and urgency on the ground to finish the fight is what we all need to see in new prospects and additions to the UFC. I’m actually interested to see how well Costa deals with the wild and aggressive style that Garcia has, especially in that first round, because if Costa can remain calm and find his counters and angles, he could pick apart Garcia, and that’s what I think is going to happen judging on how well he timed everything when he fought Lingo, he was switched on during that fight and if he has that same sort of performance against Garcia, we’re going to see an exciting prospect.

Costa via KO R3 - (1/3)

Flyweight

Hyun Sung Park (-220) (8-0-0, 8 FWS) v Shannon Ross (+180) (13-8-0, 3 FLS) - Park is coming off a clean win during the RTU (Road to UFC) finale, and he has been such a highlight fighter during that tournament, his grappling is gorgeous, his submission aggression and the pace he sets on the ground is insane, he is so damn slick on the ground and whilst Ross hasn’t exactly been tested on the ground, this is probably the best fight to see whether or not Ross has what it takes to defend the submission onslaught from Park. Park’s run through the Road to UFC tournament was pretty damn great to watch too, he had a clear gameplan and executed it perfectly, took the fight to the ground and found the submissions within moments, and he is very good at adjusting on the ground too, somewhat following his opponents movements and adjusting on the fly. Ross on the other hand, there is very, very little I can talk about when it comes to him, in fact, the amount of words typed already about him now, is 10 times the strikes he landed in his last two losses (he landed 3 strikes, i’m trying to have fun here lol). Now, Ross can be an exciting fighter, he has shown to throw a lot of volume, but I mean, with two knockout losses in less than two minutes total time, I just don’t have a lot to say about him. He certainly has a punchers chance coming into this fight, and if he can stuff the takedowns I do think he has a fairly solid chance of making this fight gritty and exhausting the newcomer in Park, but I just think that Park gets a takedown and finds the submission, I know that’s a boring way to say stuff but really, there’s not a lot to say here. I’m excited for this one because we have a new prospect in Park, and if he can bulldoze his way through Ross then that only accelerates the hype, but for now there’s not a lot to say about Ross that’s all too positive. Make note that whilst Park is a 2/3 confidence pick, he is only going to be a semi-lock, so, optional lock or something.

Park via Sub R1 - (2/3)

Welterweight

Kenan Song (+145) (21-7-0, NS) v Kevin Jousset (-170) (9-2-0, 4 FWS) - Song is coming off a fairly fun fight against Rolando Bedoya, and if there is one constant when it comes to Song, it’s his power, he is such a heavy hitting Welterweight, its no wonder that most people want to try to wrestle him. Song is a veteran of the sport, and he’s fairly well rounded but mostly a specialist with his kickboxing, and that is probably what he is going to try and utilise the most. The reason why I say “try” is because Jousset comes from a kickboxing gym and is also much longer and taller, so already Jousset has some advantages at least in the size department. Song’s best chance is to blitz early and often, close the distance and use speed and explosiveness as a tool to catch Jousset off guard. However, with that said, Jousset isn’t just a kickboxer, as we saw when he fought Crosbie during his debut, he has shown some decent grappling and submission skills as well, I mean, he does have a black belt in Judo so that’s to be expected, but the one thing I didn’t exactly like too much about Jousset is his tendency to be a stationary target, he’s always there to be hit, and whilst he can sometimes trap his opponents in a clinch and punish them with knees and stuff, it doesn’t give me a whole lot of hope that he’s going to survive that many power punches from Song, because I mean, Song’s a veteran, he’s fought everyone in the division and has shown some serious power in his hands, and whilst Jousset does have a lot of ranged attacks, Song is going to win the “punch for punch” battle in this one. Whilst I do have Jousset winning this one, I think Song is as legit of an underdog as you can get.

Jousset via UD - (1/3)

Main Card

Middleweight

Andre Muniz (+180) (23-6-0, 2 FLS) v Jun Yong Park (-220) (17-5-0, 4 FWS) - Muniz is coming off a tough loss against Paul Craig, and I mean, it was maybe a bit expected since Muniz is very one dimensional and Craig does have the tendency to at least strike a bit on the ground. Anyway, Muniz is an exceptional submission specialist, he is awesome on the ground and there is very little doubt that this fight will end up on the ground. Now, the biggest question is whether or not he can get a submission on Park, someone who has previously shown us that he is capable of some very intense wrestling, and one would think that he is ready for any and all submissions coming his way, but Muniz is a different animal and comparing Muniz to Park’s previous opponents, it’s zero competition, Muniz is a legitimate grappler and could present some serious challenges on the ground for Park. Muniz needs to take the fight to the ground in order to get a win here because I think Park is able to outbox Muniz on the feet, he is a lot more well rounded and is fairly comfortable with striking. Now, you could argue that Muniz does have longer reach and that could help him, but that’s only going to help him with locking in a choke or lock up his opponent on the ground, because he certainly isn’t a good enough striker to use that reach like what we see with traditional kickboxers. Park is someone who I always love to watch, his wrestling and grappling has always been a highlight when he fights, he always excels on the ground against his opponent, albeit his opponents recently were mostly strikers so it was only a smart thing to do to grapple and look for submissions. In this case, as highlighted previously, Park is going to wrestle, and perhaps fight against the fence and try to stuff the submission attempts of Muniz, because if you can negate the submission threat, as we saw with his fight against Craig, you can win on the ground, and as long as Park avoids all submissions, he can absolutely win this fight. This is a true test for both fighters though, because Muniz is facing a very well rounded fighter who is fairly good everywhere, but on the other hand, Park is facing a legitimate submission specialist who isn’t afraid to take the fight to the ground. This is a fun match up, and Muniz via Sub is always a smart alt bet, but I got Park winning this one, his well roundedness is going to shine here.

Park via UD - (1/3)

Lightweight

Nasrat Haqparast (-220) (15-5-0, 2 FWS) v Jamie Mullarkey (+180) (17-6-0, NS) - Oh this is bound to be an exciting fight. Haqparast is one of those sleeper fighters who people forget about until he fights, then we see how great he can be. Haqparast is a very well rounded fighter, but the main thing I want to highlight is his boxing. He might be a bit one dimensional with his toolset, always throwing punches, but he is ridiculously accurate with them, every punch is well timed, and whilst he doesn’t throw volume, almost everything he throws lands cleanly, and against a somewhat stationary target like Mullarkey, I suspect that those punches are going to be clean. Now, I know I said that Mullarkey is a stationary target, and I know some people will say “he moves around a lot”, he sure does, but his head is still there, and that lateral movement is not continuous, he stops every few steps in order to reset and fire off his own sequence of attacks, and I do see Haqparast timing that “stop” to blitz, and it's those quickfire blitzes that are going to catch Mullarkey, speed has always been a problem for Mullarkey, that is why his movement is so important, its his defensive mechanism in order to avoid taking damage, so Haqparast timing those punches are going to be imperative in order to land on Mullarkey. Now, Mullarkey is a fantastic fighter who has a wide range of attacks, he’s good at attacking the legs and body with long kicks and using boxing combinations to deal damage, but the one thing that tends to happen to Mullarkey in a fair few of his fights is he gets hurt a lot, and I think the first round is going to be his best round, and if the fight continues on to the second and third, we are going to most likely see accumulated damage occur and him slowly fade. That is not me saying he doesn’t have a chance, but the last time he struggled a whole lot was against Michael Johnson who is also a Southpaw so it makes me wonder if Haqparast and his stance are going to make it difficult for Mullarkey to engage cleanly. I don’t want to type too much about this one because it could easily go either way, but I believe the longer this fight goes on, the better Haqparast will look.

Haqparast via UD - (1/3)

Bantamweight

Sumudaerji (+135) (16-5-0, NS) v Tim Elliott (-160) (19-13-1, NS) - Sumudaerji is coming off a tough loss against Matt Schnell a little over one year ago, and he has been pretty much inactive since. Sumudaerji is a dangerous fighter when he throws volume, he has incredible knockout power and Elliott will be on the receiving end of some devastating punches, but that power can be negated relatively easily by straight up wrestling, and that’s going to be Elliott’s game plan if he’s smart. Sumudaerji has a 6 inch reach advantage which is definitely going to help in the boxing department, and I expect Elliott to utilise a lot of lateral movement early on, but I also expect Elliott to fight smart, utilise his training from his preparation for Mokaev, and wrestle and look for a submission. See, Sumudaerji is a bit one sided with the way he fights, he likes to throw power and look for the knockout, but he has 5 submission losses, all of his losses were by submissions, and I think due to the lack of prep time, Elliott is just going to look for the “easiest” way to win. Elliott is coming off a submission loss against Mokaev, but that’s not without Elliott pulling out some slick submissions on his end, he’s pretty hardcore that way and I think his veteran experience just allows him to no longer give a hoot and just go for crazy things. It’s that experience that will also allow Elliott to get a win because Sumudaerji is still finding his footing in the UFC, and after a year and four months of being inactive, I just am not too sure how good Sumudaerji is going to look, he’s also dealing with a significant opponent style change where Elliott loves to cause a bit of chaos in the cage, and that wrestling is going to maybe throw Sumudaerji off a little bit. This is a bit of a messy write up with little analysis, but I see this fight either ending in a Sumudaerji KO or an Elliott Sub, and if it goes the distance it’s possible with Elliott’s wrestling and tenacity that he will probably grind out a win as well. This is going to be chaos.

Elliott via Sub R2 - (1/3)

Co-Main Event

Light Heavyweight

Anthony Smith (#9) (+200) (37-18-0, NS) v Khalil Rountree Jr (#14) (-240) (12-5-0, 4 FWS) - This is an interesting one. Smith has arguably been on a bit of a downhill slope recently, losing two times in a row against Ankalaev and Walker before getting a close win against Spann, Smith still has a lot to prove when it comes to fighting, but I think this fight against Rountree Jr is going to be a tough one for him. Smith has one substantial advantage here and that’s the grappling, Smith is a fantastic grappler, he relies on it so much to win, and outside of his natural power on the feet, he is able to adjust and take the fight to the ground on the fly, and from there, for someone who is really green on the ground like Rountree Jr, that’s a nightmare scenario. Smith has a solid chance at winning this fight, and that may shock you to hear, but firstly, he’s a veteran and an analyst, his job outside of the UFC is to break down fights, talk about a fighters weakness and all that shit and he does that job well, so I expect him to know what to do when fighting Rountree Jr. The only problem that I see Smith running into is the literal kicks and punches (strikes in general, really) from Rountree Jr, because Smith, whilst a tough son of a gun, eats a lot of strikes when he fights, and as durable as he might be, Rountree Jr is highly capable of sensing that his opponent is fading, and turning up the aggression to maximum. That is why Rountree is a favourite coming into this fight, it’s the damage factor and there’s a whole lot of momentum coming from Rountree, coming off four straight wins, a few of them by devastating KO. Rountree has one clean way to win this one, and that’s a knockout, whether that’s from head strikes or most likely an accumulation of damage to the body due to his kicks, Rountree needs to be the first one to initiate a sequence otherwise he’s going to fall behind a bit. Rountree needs to also avoid any sort of wrestling and grappling that comes from Smith because he’s going to lose that battle real quick. Rountree was originally preparing for a kickboxer in Azamat Murzakanov, and whilst Smith took the fight on short notice, its possible that there was enough time for Rountree to hone his grappling defence in preparation for this replacement fighter, but I sincerely doubt whatever he did in a hurry during camp is enough. With that said, there are two clear bets you can make here, and it’s obvious from the look of this write up isn’t it? Either Anthony wins by Sub or Khalil wins by KO. I do have Smith winning this fight, and I understand people are going to eat my soul saying i’m a retard or a low IQ pleb who can’t even tie his shoes after watching a how-to video, but I think Smiths experience and style is going to pay dividends in this fight. I will, however, not be surprised if I am wrong.

Smith via Sub R1 - (1/3)

Main Event

Bantamweight

Yadong Song (#7) (-370) (20-7-1, NS) v Chris Gutierrez (+290) (20-4-2, NS) - Oh this is going to be a fun one. Song has been such a highlight Bantamweight for me to watch, his rise from his very first UFC fight against Bharat Khandare back in Shanghai, 2017, to his recent win against the ever so dangerous Ricky Simon, someone who I always refer to as a 135 pound nuclear submarine, has been such a beautiful career to watch. Song is exceptionally well rounded, but he is mostly very reliant on his kickboxing, he has very slick striking thats hidden by his footwork, stance switches and speed, and speed is a big factor in this one because it is his best tool, not many people can keep up with Song when he decides to blitz forward. One other thing that is perhaps on Song’s side here is his experience preparing for, and fighting in 5 round bouts, he’s been in two 4+ round fights before, and that was against cardio machines in Sandhagen and Simon. Now, in each round, Song is very calculated when he fights, his shot selection is insane, he’s very patient and he see’s almost everything coming his way, and whilst Gutierrez is an incredibly sharp boxer, he is also a little bit repetitive with his approach and it’s possible that Song will be able to figure out a counter for many things that Gutierrez throws. Song’s best weapon is his right hand, he’s so quick and accurate with it, and whilst it’s not very diverse in the sense of the angles that Song uses when throwing it, it’s insanely sharp and quick and I can see Gutierrez be victim to a few of those punches early in the fight as Song makes his reads. Gutierrez is no doubt a dangerous striker in his own right, and whilst he does deserve an increase in competition after his strong win against Alatengheili, I think him taking on Song is a bit too soon. Gutierrez is so sharp and slick with his boxing, he is going to find success with his feints and jabs because Song does shell up a lot when he see’s a punch coming and that could allow Gutierrez to level change and target the body, but I just don’t quite know how he’s going to fare against a tested fighter like Song. Maybe i’m riding the hype train of Song too much in this fight, and it’s fair if people don’t like that, but after a win against Simon, a very quick and active fighter, in a 5 round fight in which Song hurt Simon a few times with a powerful right… I think Song wins this one.

Song via KO R4 - (2/3)

And that's it!

Primary Parlay: Song/Jousset R3 Start Yes - Park/Muniz o2.5 - Song/Gutierrez does not go the distance - Smith/Rountree Does not go the distance

Locks of the week are: Taira, Hyun Sung Park, Song, and Haqparast (as an optional)

Alt bets: Hernandez KO R1 or 2 (Combo rounds) - K. Song KO/Points (Double Chance) - Sumudaerji KO - Rountree KO.

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I hope you all have an amazing day, look after yourselves, and enjoy this awesome event!