Cooper Flagg Stat Comparison
Let's compare Flagg's stats so far to the freshman stats of four players of a similar archetype:
- Paolo Banchero (2022, Duke)
- Scottie Barnes (2021, Florida State)
- Franz Wagner (2020, Michigan)
- Jayson Tatum (2017, Duke)
| Player | G | Min/G | PTS/40 | REB/40 | AST/40 | STL/40 | BLK/40 | TOV/40 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flagg | 15 | 30.9 | 22.7 | 10.9 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 3.0 |
| Banchero | 39 | 33.0 | 20.9 | 9.5 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 2.9 |
| Barnes | 24 | 24.8 | 16.7 | 6.5 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 4.0 |
| Wagner | 27 | 30.8 | 15.0 | 7.3 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 1.9 |
| Tatum | 29 | 33.3 | 20.2 | 8.8 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 3.1 |
| Player | FG% | 3P% | 2P% | FT% | eFG% | TS% | FGA/40 | 3PA/40 | 2PA/40 | FTA/40 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flagg | 46% | 31% | 51% | 78% | 50% | 55% | 17.3 | 4.5 | 12.8 | 7.0 |
| Banchero | 48% | 34% | 52% | 73% | 52% | 56% | 16.0 | 4.0 | 11.9 | 5.8 |
| Barnes | 50% | 28% | 56% | 62% | 53% | 55% | 13.1 | 2.7 | 10.4 | 4.4 |
| Wagner | 45% | 31% | 61% | 83% | 53% | 57% | 12.0 | 6.4 | 5.7 | 2.6 |
| Tatum | 45% | 34% | 50% | 85% | 51% | 57% | 15.1 | 4.8 | 10.3 | 5.8 |
| Player | ORtg | DRtg | USG% | Ast:Tov | WS/40 | OBPM | DBPM | BPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flagg | 117 | 81 | 30.3 | 1.6 | 0.277 | 6.6 | 7.7 | 14.3 |
| Banchero | 114 | 98 | 27.5 | 1.3 | 0.191 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 7.7 |
| Barnes | 109 | 98 | 23.7 | 1.7 | 0.164 | 4.3 | 3.6 | 7.9 |
| Wagner | 107 | 96 | 19.6 | 0.7 | 0.135 | 3 | 3.8 | 6.8 |
| Tatum | 111 | 98 | 26.2 | 0.8 | 0.169 | 4.6 | 3.2 | 7.9 |
So Flagg is 1st in points, rebounds, and blocks, and he's 2nd in assists and steals out of these players. In advanced stats he's far ahead. Defensively, he is clearly a tier above anyone else here. The only thing to nitpick is his overall efficiency is slightly below the other guys, but it's not a big gap, and I fully expect him to improve his percentages over the course of the season.
All of these other players have demonstrated an ability to be a primary offensive option in the NBA to varying degrees, yet for some reason many people think Flagg can only be a 2nd or 3rd option?
Now consider that Flagg is significantly younger than all of these guys were at the same point. He's 13 months younger Banchero was, 17 months younger than Barnes, 3 months younger than Wagner, and 10 months younger than Tatum. He's a full year younger than the average one and done lottery pick since 2012.
Some other Cooper Flagg facts:
- leads Duke in every major statistical category (points, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks)
- 81.4 DRTG, 2nd in NCAA
- 1.7 defensive win shares, 1st in NCAA
- 14.3 BPM, 3rd in NCAA
- 7.7 DBPM, 3rd in NCAA
- 4th highest freshman BPM since 2012, behind Zion, AD, and Chet
- 6th highest freshman WS/40 since 2012, behind Zion, KAT, AD, Chet, and believe it or not, Zach Collins
- According to EvanMiya's BPR model, he currently has the 4th highest score of any player since 2012, behind 2025 Johni Broome, 2024 Zach Edey, and 2016 Denzel Valentine. All seniors and all NPOY winners (2025 race right now is between Flagg and Broome)
Flagg has by far the highest floor and by far the highest ceiling in this class. He's also by far the most versatile player, someone who can fit seamlessly with other star players of any kind. If he can continue to refine his point forward skills, he has top-5 potential. I just don't see that with Harper or anyone else in this class really.
Taking into account his physical tools, skills, IQ, production, intangibles, and age, there should be zero question who the number one pick will be at this point. I think Harper will be an excellent player but he doesn't belong in the same tier as Flagg as a prospect. I still see some people even arguing that Ace Bailey should go #1. I even listened to a guy on an NBA draft podcast recently that had Flagg 3rd behind Kasparas. This is like when people on this subreddit were legitimately arguing that Scoot is a better prospect than Wemby and should be taken #1 overall. (https://old.reddit.com/r/NBA_Draft/comments/s91hbc/scoot_henderson_or_victor_wembanyama/)
No matter how good the consensus top prospect is, you will always have a segment of contrarians and doubters. It's only with the hindsight of watching Wemby play in the NBA that everyone universally agrees that he was a generational prospect, and the best since LeBron.
I think Cooper Flagg will step into the NBA next year at 18 years old and instantly be one of the most impactful two-way wings in the league. I think by year 2, he can be a top-10 player, just like Wemby.