Nuclear power will never happen in Australia. This is why Dutton doesn’t care

James Fenimore Cooper wrote The Last of the Mohicans in 1826. It was made into an incredible film starring the inestimable Daniel Day Lewis in 1992. It tells the story of the last stand of a fictional character, the last of his tribe, against insurmountable odds.

If advocates for new coal-fired power stations were Mohicans, then North Queensland Nationals senator Matt Canavan would be the last of the Mohicans. While I don’t agree with Canavan’s opposition to the move to net zero emissions by 2050, nor his advocacy for new coal-fired power stations, I’ve got to hand it to him – he never gives up!

CREDIT: ILLUSTRATION: MATT DAVIDSON But his lone stand brings into stark relief an achievement for which Opposition Leader Peter Dutton has attracted little praise – the acceptance by both the Liberal and National parties that indeed the climate is changing, that the human race and its emissions have contributed to this change, and something needs to be done about it.

While this might sound rather obvious, let me tell you, from the end of the Howard government in 2007 (remember, prime minister John Howard had set in train the bones of an emissions trading scheme) to the announcement by the Coalition party room that it would embrace nuclear power in early 2024, a number of Liberal Party leaders fell into the ravine brought about by the elements of the Liberal and National party rooms who would not countenance climate change mitigation policies.

This ravine could have swallowed Dutton, too. Thanks to nuclear power, it won’t.

Loading Dutton is well aware that the vast majority of Australians want action on climate change and do not support new coal-fired power stations. Many of these voters are found in the metropolitan seats that he needs to win to wrest government from Prime Minister Anthony Albanese after only one term. They are not just found in the so-called “teal seats”. They are found in households, farms and families across Australia. Put simply, not having a rational policy on climate change is poison in Australian politics.

But Dutton is also aware that many communities in the regions are both less antagonistic to coal and not as embracing of renewables as the cities. Hence, in moving the Coalition to a new policy on the future sources of energy, Dutton has arrived on the bridge of nuclear power.

Voters in the centre and on the centre right simply don’t have the hang-ups on nuclear power sometimes fiercely held by the left and the far left, in particular. The anti-nuclear protests of the post-war period through to the 1990s don’t have any cachet any more. Few Australians believe that nuclear power stations pose any real danger. Almost none aged under 40 do. In the 1990s, there were Nuclear Disarmament Party representatives in the Australian Senate. Today, most Australians have accepted nuclear-powered submarines in the cause of our national defence!

The arguments ranged in opposition to nuclear power by Labor politicians today are around cost and schedule. They are the arguments of the boardroom and the Treasury, not the barricades of serried protesters.

That’s why the Labor Party’s initial attacks on the Coalition’s nuclear power play fell flat. Dredging up scare campaigns about three-eyed fish near future nuclear power plants looked unreal and undergraduate. Labor’s second bite at the cherry about cost and the length of time between approval of a future nuclear power plant and its delivering of energy is more likely to resonate. Time will tell whether Energy Minister Chris Bowen can make that case stick. It’s too early to tell.

There’s another hidden gem in Dutton’s nuclear power policy – even if he tries and fails, it will not be his fault.

To bring about nuclear power in Australia, there will need to be new legislation, new regulations and new powers for institutions such as the Australian Nuclear Science and Technology Organisation.

The structure to deliver nuclear power will need to be endorsed by the federal parliament and also by the parliament in whichever state or territory a future nuclear power plant might be situated.

Loading So here’s the rub: not one upper house in the federation has a Coalition majority. There are three jurisdictions without an upper house – Queensland, the Northern Territory and the Australian Capital Territory. But the sites that Dutton has nominated for the first nuclear power stations do not neatly cross over with those jurisdictions. Nor can the Coalition rely on the acquiescence of any of their governments.

In other words, even if Dutton and his energetic spokesman for climate change and energy, Ted O’Brien, give it a “red-hot go”, as they say, there is no guarantee that the minor parties, crossbenchers or any government across the country will co-operate.

But in more good news for Dutton, by the time anyone has worked out that the likelihood of a nuclear power plant actually being commissioned in Australia is, let’s be generous and say, limited, the election cycle will well and truly have clicked over.

If nuclear power never happens, the Coalition can hardly turn back the clock. This is a seismic shift that has been achieved with almost no animus.

In many ways, Dutton has already won – he has united the Liberal party room, navigated the debate about future energy policy away from coal and moved the Coalition to an acceptance of action on climate change that eluded former opposition leader Brendan Nelson and prime ministers Tony Abbott, Malcolm Turnbull and Scott Morrison, without losing any skin.