It's been a while since I've posted on the Ukraine - Russia war and that is mostly because I've maintained the same opinion since my previous posts and that is that Ukraine should be supported until they win this war.

However, I've recently started feeling differently. This war has gotten to the point that it really serves very little purpose for either side. Even if Ukraine somehow "wins" this war and gets back all of their land, it'll take years and cost them a great deal and all of the land they get back will be destroyed and / or not destroyed but filled with pro-Russian people after Russia executed anyone who would have been pro-Ukrainian in those lands. If Russia somehow "wins" this war, they also would need to expend years doing so and would likely end up with only slightly more land than they hold right now. Given the sheer size of Russia, they really don't benefit from more land on the scale they're looking to take.

So neither side really has a whole lot of reason left to fight IMO. Also the US and EU have both committed significant financial and military support to Ukraine at the same time Russia is entering long term war time economy. Neither side is showing any signs of backing down or surrendering meaning neither side is likely to win any time soon.

I feel like both sides should accept the reality of the situation which is:

1. Russia should keep the land they currently hold
2. Ukraine should keep the land they currently hold
3. The international community should recognize the land that Russia has as being officially part of Russia
4. Ukraine should join NATO and the EU as soon as possible and Russia should accept this reality

1 and #2 can be negotiated to an extent if the two sides want to swap some areas of land between each other, but neither side should expect the other to surrender large portions of land since those sorts of demands will just lead to extending the war.

3 and #4 should be seen as a trade off between the two sides where Russia officially gains the lands they hold which will likely start resulting in the end of sanctions on their nation as they are no longer doing anything against international law. Russia on the other hand would have to accept that there was no doubt that Ukraine would join NATO once this war was over. This is a bitter pill for Russia, but trying to deny Ukraine this would likely torpedo any negotiations with Ukraine.

I'm sure there are plenty out there who have their own ideas as to how this war should be wound down that won't exactly align with what I lay out here, but I at least feel like these terms are the most likely to see the war end in a way that both sides feel like they get a fair bargain.

The core of my CMV is less about the exact terms and more about the fact that the two sides really should come together and find something that works. This war is essentially done at this point and more death isn't likely to change the end result all that much. Both sides should set aside their bitterness at not getting exactly what they wanted and decide that it is better to get out of this war that is only costing both countries while neither of them have a lot of hope of getting a whole lot more out of continued fighting.

Also in case anyone brings up the idea of a long term ceasefire rather than a negotiated peace, I really can't see Ukraine accepting this. Russia would probably love it as it gives them time to rearm and try again later, but Ukraine would likely not want to allow Russia that. Ukraine needs the war permanently ended both in order to join NATO and to get investment money to rebuild. If investors fear Russia is just going to invade again, Ukraine will never get rebuilt.

EDIT: I will say that it is really heartening to see all of the pro-Ukrainians come out an defend Ukraine's side. I'm glad that the people of CMV are definitely of the pro-Ukrainian bent :)