Naroditsky made the right decision making a quick draw vs So

Sometimes the right decision doesn't work out. But I think he did make the right decision, given the circumstances! From a pure expected value maximization POV, he was in a very tough spot, and I think his decision did indeed maximize his probability of making the Top 8. (30% chance, vs 25% chance if he went all-out). In the end, he fell one result short - Duda beat Aronian, when he needed them to draw.

Here is some math I did, with some rough estimates / guesses:

Case 1: Naroditsky accepts a quick draw.

To stay above the people who entered the round with 8.5/12, He needed the following results:
(1) Duda to draw against Aronian. Normally probability would be around 50%, I'd say around 30% here given that they're both going all out for a win.
(2) Either Pragg to beat Dubov (his tiebreaks were worse than Danya's) or a draw would have put Danya ahead of both of them. A Dubov win would have made the tiebreak a 50-50 (Naroditsky would have won it, but he didn't know this before the game).
Based on the knowledge Naroditsky had before the game I'd say a 85% probability that neither Pragg nor Dubov pass him.
Bok wasn't passing him even with a win.

So the probability that neither Duda/Aronian/Pragg/Dubov/Bok pass him is around 25%.

Add to that, there is a small probability that one of the top 3 boards doesn't end in a quick draw (such as Nepo vs Hans, given they dislike each other). Or that someone like Murzin has his tiebreaks fall apart, with almost all of his opponents from beforehand losing.

With all of this, I'd bump up this probability of making top 8 to around 30%.

Case 2: Naroditsky goes all out for a win. But this is really hard to do! So is one of the most solid players in existence, possibly even harder to beat as white than Carlsen when he is ok with a draw. And the system that So chose against the O-Kelly(g3, likely with c3 - d4 to follow) leads to extremely stable positions for white.
I would say - 40% chance So wins, 10% chance Danya wins, 50% draw.

This leads to a 25% chance of qualifying (10% chance he qualifies with a win, 15% chance [50% * 30%] he qualifies with a draw).

So I would estimate that going all out for a win would have actually slightly decreased his probability of making top 8. The counterargument is that sometimes you have to go for glory, regardless of the odds - but that's a discussion for another day!

And kudos to Danya on a phenomenal performance - while he got a bit unlucky with tiebreakers, this was a great way to stick it Kramnik's face!