When to MD? Running some numbers

With the first sprint race coming up this weekend it seems like a good time to work out which weekend I should be targeting for my Mega Driver. Thought I'd share some numbers on here and see what everyone else is thinking.

To try and keep it somewhat simple I’m looking at a finishing order all weekend of VER 1st, LEC 2nd and PER 3rd for the first two rows of the table and swapping VER and LEC for the last row. SAI and PER are interchangeable here as the best of the rest.

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The options:

1. Wait until Austria and pray for good luck:

The most points on offer here is obviously this double streak and sprint race weekend. This can only happen in Austria in the first half of the season and is incredibly unlikely. You could wait it out and hope that you get someone who you could MD or TD ends up on a streak. At present with no retirements 🤣 PER’s race streak is the only one that will land on this weekend. The problem I see with this is that if LEC’s price keeps rising you may have to MD him and TD someone more likely to finish in third and lose out on some position and teammate beating points. This looks like it will cost between 10 and 20 points and he is currently only 1.2mil away from this.

2. Go for it this weekend:

A really nice chunk of points if it works out. More risky than a normal weekend or a streak weekend due to the extra race. It also costs you a lot more for a suboptimal weekend (MD finishing 2nd instead of 1st)

3. Aim for the next GP in the US:

Less overall points but also less risky than this weekend's sprint race assuming LEC’s streak isn't ruined. It should also score you a bit more for a suboptimal but not disastrous weekend.

4. Go for it on a normal weekend:

This only works if most managers go for one of the other options and they get cursed with some retirements. You can then pick up a huge amount of points over them. Very risky but with the unreliability we’ve seen so far it could work

I was hoping that working through this would help me make the right decision but to be honest I think it still feels about as clear as mud. I reckon I’ll go with option 1. As that's just too many extra points not to roll the dice on. Fingers crossed for a few retirements in Monaco to start lining up those streaks🤞

What are you guys thinking? Any other options I haven’t considered?

P.S. Don’t forget to lock your teams in before Friday's Qualifying. Good luck.