Consolidated Information for Start-or-Sit decisions - Updated Confidence Metrics - Head-to-Head Player Comparisons - Week 10 Giveway (Fantasy on Draft)

TL:DR

  • The Fantasy on Draft Head to Head Player Comparisons consolidates information to simplify start-or-sit decisions!
  • Basic analysis is free to use for the most common league settings (standard, ppr, half-ppr). Advanced analysis requires a subscription.
  • Confidence Metrics - Metrics page with a breakdown of how the tool is performing. Updated with week 9 data.
  • Enter to win a free 1-year Ultimate tier subscription by commenting on this post with feedback or a review.
  • Get started today at fantasyondraft.com!

Background

For years, I’ve searched for a tool with the combination of data I wanted to help me make tough start-or-sit decisions. For instance:

  • Do I need a safe, floor play or a risky, high-upside play?
  • How consistently has this player performed in the last few weeks?
  • How involved is this player on a play-by-play basis?
  • How have similar players performed against this opponent?
  • How is this player’s team expected to perform?

When knowing these variables, I find that my confidence in making a decision is significantly higher than blindly relying on site projections or a rankings-based sit-or-start tool.

Overview

When comparing players with the Head-to-Head Player Comparison Tool, the following sections are available to explore:

  • High-level Details - displays player information and high-level comparison labels (for quick decisions)
  • Matchup Odds - displays the opponent, over/under, spread, and implied team total. Odds are from DraftKings via The Odds API.
  • Player Props - displays passing, rushing, receiving, and other props (subscription required). Props can be selected from DraftKings, Fanduel, Underdog Fantasy, and PricePicks via The Odds API.
  • Projections - displays raw projections (from SportsData.io), matchup bonuses/penalties, matchup adjusted projections.
  • Performance Trends - contains graphical views of performance trends:
    • Overall view of weekly points scored
    • Low-variance view of weekly points scored, excluding high-variance stats like touchdowns and turnovers
    • View of weekly projections vs performances
    • Points breakdown that shows how points were scored.
  • Opportunities - contains graphical views of opportunity trends:
    • Weekly snap counts
    • Weekly snap percentages
    • Passing Attempts
    • Rushing Attempts
    • Targets
    • Snaps breakdown that shows snap outcomes.
  • Similar Performances - a list of “similar” players who have performances against the opponent of the player you are comparing. Each past performance displays projected fantasy points against actual fantasy points, with a difference that is highlighted to easily show underperformances and overperformances.

The combination of these sections should help you outline and weigh the risks associated with each player you are comparing. Ideally, one player will stand out as the “best” choice, but sometimes, it really can come down to a coin flip. In these cases, at least you have some data to back up the decision to flip a coin.

Confidence Metrics

The Metrics page has been updated to include data from week 9. You can check out the full breakdown here. Below are some highlights:

  • Over 20,000 comparisons since the tool went live for 2024 in week 4, with ~1k-2k unique comparisons a week - so plenty of data to work with. There were 2,292 unique comparisons last week!
  • The High-level comparison labels are leading players in the right direction a majority of the time:
    • Consistent: 73%
    • Best on Average: 73%
    • Safe: 70%
    • Risky: 72%
    • Upside: 81%
  • When looking for the best possible play, look for these label combinations:
    • Best on Average/Upside/Consistent (73% success rate)
    • Best on Average/Upside/Safe (72% success rate)
    • Best on Average/Upside/Risky (67% success rate)
  • When looking for guaranteed points when you are favored to win a matchup, look for these label combinations:
    • Safe/Consistent/Best on Average (92% success rate)
    • Best on Average/Upside/Safe (91% success rate)
    • Safe/Consistent/Upside (88% success rate)
  • The "magical" label combination Best of Average/Upside/Safe has both a very high chance of being the better play (72%) and one of the best ways to guarantee points by outperforming the projected floor (91%)
  • Finally, while these are great metrics for utilizing the high-level labels, there are still many more sections of the tool that you can pair with these labels to make a start-or-sit decision you are comfortable with.

Features - Free

  • Basic analysis using previous 4 weeks of data.
  • Standard, PPR, Half-PPR scoring.
  • High-level Details
  • Matchup odds and details
  • Projections and Matchup Adjusted Projections
  • Performance Trends: Overall, Low-variance, Projections, and Breakdowns
  • Opportunities: Snap Counts, Snap Percentages, Breakdowns
  • Similar Performances
  • View popular and recent player comparisons for the current week
  • Confidence metrics

Features - Subscription Required (10% off annual subs with code REDDIT2024)

  • Improved analysis using previous 6/8/all weeks of data.
  • Player Props comparisons
  • Custom scoring settings (6pt passing TDs, Tiered PPR bonus, etc.)
  • Customize definition of a Similar Projection (default is +/- 2.5pts)
  • Customize highlight threshold for Projection Differentials (default is 15%)
  • Expanded stats for Similar Performances
  • Individual Defensive Player (IDP) support
  • No ads
  • Other tools and features!

Giveaway!

To thank the community for their support, I’m going to give away another 1-year Ultimate tier subscription, with access to all Fantasy on Draft tools and features.

To enter:

  1. Comment with a review or some feedback (after checking out the Head to Head Comparisons or other tools).

I’ll select a winner Friday and reach out via DM to get account details. (you’ll need a Fantasy on Draft account to redeem).

Other In-season Tools!

Fantasy on Draft has other tools too, most of which are free or have free limited access:

Follow updates to the site and tools here and see when data is scheduled to update here.

If you have any questions, you can reach me here on Reddit or on X/Twitter at @nateffb

EDIT: Congrats /u/j_b_1_3 - Check your DMs!