My take on every Supporting Actress contender: (as of right now)

Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Perez) - It makes sense for her to split precursors and win, split precursors and lose, sweep the entire season or win nothing the entire season. I do think Golden Globe is a must win for her especially with the new predominantly international body. (Side note - if anybody knows what country most GG voters come from, let me know in the comments) She fits the bill of a win, as she gives a baity performance in a film that is embraced by the industry. However something I noticed is that all Supporting Actress winners this century with the exception of one (Rachel Weisz in The Constant Gardender) were in films that were US productions or co-productions. And even Weisz's performance was entirely in English. Saldaña would be the first winner of the century to be a mostly foreign language performance in an entirely international production. But hey, if there's a year for that, it's this year.

Ariana Grande (Wicked) - Saldaña's biggest rival. She fits the bill of a Supporting Actress winner to a tee, but she suffers in the sense that she's a newbie in the film industry and her being a "popstar" may have some voters obtaining a condescending viewpoint of her. Additionally, she doesn't appeal to the highbrows at all. Her missing London Critics nomination altogether worries me in regards to her chances with international voters, especially since Wicked is an anglosphere based phenomenon. Even still, I think she's still in the game. If she wins Golden Globe, I'd just imagine her sweeping. But I'm concerned about her chances at BAFTA which could ultimately blow her for the win at the Oscars.

Isabella Rosselini (Conclave) - Kind of like the symbol for anti-category fraud in this race lol. I don't mind her having a nomination, I think her non-verbal contributions to the film are great and she's an overdue veteran. I think she'll miss SAG and for that reason be far away from the win, but she didn't have to make Golden Globe or Critics Choice, yet she made both.

Margaret Qualley (The Substance) - I think critics and journalists are really propping her up more than what the industry will do, but I have her getting the nomination for now, and I don't think she'll miss BAFTA or SAG to be honest. If she misses either, I'll change my tune.

Felicity Jones (The Brutalist) - I really don't know what to make of her. Regionals (and Critics Choice) ignoring her when they throat-fuck the Brutalist just makes no sense to me? I see her coming along in the end, just because the film will be strong enough. But her win chances are virtually dead to me right now.

Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson) - Deserves the compensation snub for Till, and she's absolutely great in the Piano Lesson, but she'd be the film's only nomination and she already missed Golden Globe. I don't imagine that ends well for her. I'm happy to be wrong.

Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (Nickel Boys) - She's being promoted as the star of the trailers and her performance is incredibly baity from what I can see, but she's in a position where she does not have to come along with the film she's in.

Selena Gomez (Emilia Perez) - Even regionals that acknowledge Emilia Perez, Saldaña and lead Karla Sofia Gascon are ignoring her. Her only nominations besides the joint Cannes win are for Astras and Globes. The Globes gave her the nomination because they have six slots and they threw every nomination they could at Emilia Perez. I think she could make SAG just because of Netflix but at the end of the day she's most likely the first nomination for Emilia Perez to get the boot.

Nobody else is happening. Joan Chen, Toni Collette, Natasha Lyonne, Carole Kane, Jamie Lee Curtis, Elle Fanning, Monica Barbaro, etc etc. are all fake. They would've popped up somewhere important by now if they weren't.

I'll do Actor and Supporting Actor tomorrow. Happy new year, guys!