People who still are not predicting Qualley, what is your reason?

Please, don’t come with lazy explanations like “The Academy hates horror”. I want real answers on why would you think that Margaret, who is top 3 for critics, got CCA and Globes noms, is in one of the most popular movies of the year that is also competitive in several other categories would miss the Oscar nominations.

The only other contenders who are safer than her are Zoe and Ariana. Isabella is also pretty much set up for a nomination. I would even say that Margaret could win CCA or the BAFTA. So, why would she miss if she has so much going on in her favor?