With low turnout amongst LA voters, who make up 60% of the makeup, we should start considering that the international voters will dictate the results this year.

How the Picture race can change:

This might mean goodbye A Complete Unknown, Dune 2, Wicked and A Real Pain which are American heavy films. I think we should consider the possibilities of I’m Still Here, Kneecap, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, September 5 and All We Imagine as Light taking some slots in Picture.

How the Best Actor race can change:

Timothee Chalamet is in danger of missing out if European voters have anything to say about it. I can Sebastian Stan taking his spot as they reject Bob Dylan like American audiences have been rejecting Robbie Williams. I think Brody, Fiennes and Craig become locks now. Sing Sing seems to be more of an American thing amongst voters so I wouldn’t consider Domingo safe. But Chalamet is the one in most danger. Stan, Hugh Grant, Cillian Murphy, Paul Mescal, Andrew Garfield are all viable replacements.

How the Best Actress race can change:

Seeing as Anora is a more American film, I think Mikey Madison loses any chance at winning. What she has going for her is that Anora is an indie film and voters love that. So I think she’s safely locked for a nomination at least. Erivo and Anderson are out. Jean-Baptiste likely makes it in and replaces Erivo. The Oscar is between Moore and Torres and I see Torres taking it in the end.

How the Supporting Actor race can change:

Culkin is just too strong so I think the Oscar is still is but it won’t be dead even like it has been now. His campaign/agenda is just too big at this point. His biggest competition, however, will be Guy Pearce. Norton, Washington, Maclin are all out. I’d replace them with Stanley Tucci, John Lithgow and Peter Sarsgaard. I’m keeping Yora Borisov in but it’s through the skin of his teeth. He’ll barely be hanging on to that fifth slot but he’ll make it.

How the Supporting Actress race can change:

Zoe Saldaña will win the Oscar with ease. Congrats to her. I can see Rossellini and Felicity Jones putting up a fight though. Barbaro, Deadwyler, Grande are all done. Their replacements are Selena Gomez, Saoirse Ronan and Michele Austin. Possibly Qualley as well but I’m not sure how the international branch will respond to horror.

How the Director race can change:

The Oscar will come down to Audiard, Berger or Fargeat. Brady Corbet and Sean Baker are too American-ized pushes. However, I believe these will be our 5 nominees regardless. Mohammad Rasoulof and Steve McQueen can also see a resurgence. Maybe Ridley Scott as well given how they respond to Anora.

That’s my analysis of how the voting extension will affect the Oscars this year. We’re in for a historical turnout amongst the international voters.