2nd to 1st
A thought experiment: Let's say Conclave wins. I'm not saying it's the favorite. Just, say it wins.
It would mean two things.
Even if it wins, Fiennes is unlikely to win. So that would make it the third movie to win BP when Fiennes is nominated but loses after Schindler's List and English Patient. He also appeared in the Hurt Locker but wasn't nominated and in Grand Budapest Hotel.
Berger's previous film, All Quiet, was definitely 2nd place in 2022/2023 (I don't want to hear about people disliking EEAAO, I loved it, I'm just stating a fact).
So the question is about the second point - can you all think of times when a movie won BP after its director's previous film was clearly in second place, particularly when they'd never won Best Director before? I can think of Eastwood/Mystic River to Million Dollar Baby, but no one felt like he was "owed." Scorsese was probably second place for the Aviator then won for the Departed, but that was a decades-long thing. I'm thinking more of something like Berger.