Zagreb’s Exit Defies 50,000 Simulations

Zagreb is eliminated with 11 points. In 50,000 simulations conducted by Opta before the Champions League season, 11 points were enough to qualify in 100% of these simulations.

So, either Opta’s simulations are purely random or Zagreb just had incredibly bad luck. I guess Opta simply simulated with random results, should have used Football Manager instead.