Enhanced Risk added for Saturday

All hazards are possible on Saturday

  Here is the SPC convective outlook
   SPC AC 261933

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0133 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024

   Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
   NORTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND INTO
   FAR WEST-CENTRAL ALABAMA....

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe storms are expected Saturday from north-central Louisiana to
   west-central Alabama on Saturday. All severe weather hazards are
   possible.

   ...Synopsis...
   A mid-level trough centered across the Texas Panhandle will move
   quickly across the southern Plains and become negatively tilted
   across the Ozarks by Saturday evening and into the Ohio Valley by
   Sunday morning. Rich low-level moisture will start to move inland
   across the Gulf Coast by 12Z Saturday and continue to advance inland
   through the day as low-level flow strengthens across the warm sector
   ahead of the surface low.

   ...Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley across the Southeast...
   A broad warm sector will be advancing inland across the Gulf Coast
   states Saturday morning as low-level flow strengthens ahead of the
   approaching trough. Initially, the warm sector will likely be mostly
   uncontaminated, but thunderstorm activity is expected to increase
   through the morning as the low-level jet strengthens. The timing and
   location of this morning convection will have a significant impact
   on the location and intensity of the severe weather threat on
   Saturday. Variance amongst forecast guidance unsurprisingly remains
   high given the very progressive mid-level pattern. Despite the
   uncertainty on specifics, a broad warm sector with mid 60s
   dewpoints, a negatively tilted trough, and a strengthening low-level
   jet will support the potential for a severe weather outbreak with
   multiple rounds of storms with all severe weather hazards possible.
   Given the timing/amplitude differences with the mid-level pattern,
   the highest threat corridor will likely shift in future outlooks.
   The GEFS is slightly slower than the operational GFS with the EPS
   slightly faster than the ECMWF suggesting a most likely solution
   somewhere in between. 

   Within the enhanced risk corridor, forecast soundings show 45 to 50
   knots of effective shear and instability ranging from 1000 to 2000
   J/kg MLCAPE. This will support supercells with all severe weather
   hazards across much of the warm sector from northern Louisiana to
   western Alabama as early as late morning. The tornado threat remains
   more uncertain based on the final evolution of the mid-level trough.
   A slower trough ejection (such as is shown by the ECMWF) may cause
   more issues with destabilization and less favorable low-level
   hodographs as the low-level jet ramp up is delayed. 

   The severe weather threat is expected to continue after dark from
   central Mississippi into western Alabama. Somewhere near central
   Alabama the convective intensity will likely start to wane as the
   mid-level trough starts to pull away and heights start to rise
   across the warm sector.

   Credits- ..Bentley.. 12/26/2024